| Garanti BBVA Macroeconomic Forecasts |
| |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
| CPI |
64,3% |
64,8% |
45,2% |
26,5% |
18,5% |
16,0% |
15,0% |
15,0% |
| GDP Growth |
5,5% |
5,1% |
3,2% |
2,5% |
4,5% |
4,2% |
4,1% |
4,0% |
| GDP (bnTL) |
15.012 |
26.546 |
43.934 |
60.026 |
75.759 |
92.450 |
111.154 |
132.995 |
| GDP (bn$) |
906 |
1.130 |
1.334 |
1.469 |
1.541 |
1.613 |
1.685 |
1.758 |
| GDP Deflator |
96,0% |
68,2% |
60,4% |
33,3% |
20,7% |
17,1% |
15,5% |
15,0% |
| Per Capita Income ($) |
10.659 |
13.243 |
15.583 |
17.078 |
17.829 |
18.576 |
19.307 |
20.061 |
| 2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) |
10,0% |
39,7% |
39,5% |
26,8% |
23,3% |
19,7% |
19,7% |
19,5% |
| 2-year Benchmark Real Rate (Ex-Ante, eop) |
-33,3% |
-3,8% |
10,3% |
7,0% |
6,3% |
4,1% |
4,1% |
3,9% |
| CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) |
9,0% |
42,5% |
49,0% |
31,0% |
22,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| CBRT Funding Rate (average) |
12,7% |
20,5% |
49,6% |
39,3% |
25,4% |
19,2% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| USDTRY (eop) |
18,7 |
29,4 |
35,0 |
45,5 |
52,0 |
61,5 |
69,5 |
80,5 |
| USDTRY (average) |
16,6 |
23,7 |
32,8 |
40,7 |
49,0 |
57,1 |
65,8 |
75,5 |
| EUROTRY (eop) |
19,9 |
32,6 |
37,1 |
48,6 |
58,6 |
72,2 |
83,4 |
96,6 |
| EUROTRY (average) |
17,4 |
25,7 |
35,5 |
43,0 |
53,9 |
65,8 |
78,7 |
90,6 |
| Currency Basket (eop) |
19,3 |
31,0 |
36,1 |
47,0 |
55,3 |
66,8 |
76,5 |
88,6 |
| Currency Basket (average) |
17,0 |
24,7 |
34,2 |
41,8 |
51,4 |
61,5 |
72,3 |
83,0 |
| Parity (eop) |
1,07 |
1,11 |
1,06 |
1,07 |
1,13 |
1,17 |
1,20 |
1,20 |
| Current Account Balance (bn$) |
-45,8 |
-40,5 |
-9,0 |
-15,0 |
-23,3 |
-26,0 |
-30,9 |
-34,8 |
| Current Account Balance (as of GDP) |
-5,1% |
-3,6% |
-0,7% |
-1,0% |
-1,5% |
-1,6% |
-1,8% |
-2,0% |
| Exports (fob, bn$) |
254 |
256 |
263 |
268 |
294 |
318 |
342 |
363 |
| Imports (cif, bn$) |
364 |
362 |
343 |
362 |
402 |
432 |
465 |
494 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) |
-110 |
-106 |
-79 |
-95 |
-108 |
-114 |
-123 |
-131 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) |
-12,1% |
-9,4% |
-6,0% |
-6,5% |
-7,0% |
-7,1% |
-7,3% |
-7,4% |
| EU Defined Public Debt / GDP |
32,6% |
29,5% |
25,5% |
25,0% |
26,4% |
28,9% |
29,0% |
30,0% |
| Unemployment Rate |
10,5% |
9,4% |
8,8% |
10,5% |
10,7% |
10,6% |
10,5% |
10,5% |
| CG Primary Balance / GDP |
1,1% |
-2,6% |
-2,0% |
-0,3% |
0,0% |
0,3% |
0,4% |
0,5% |
| CG Budget Balance / GDP |
-0,9% |
-5,2% |
-4,9% |
-3,5% |
-3,1% |
-2,9% |
-2,7% |
-2,6% |
| CG Budget Balance (bn TL) |
-139 |
-1.375 |
-2.152 |
-2.113 |
-2.366 |
-2.656 |
-3.010 |
-3.498 |