| Garanti BBVA Macroeconomic Forecasts |
| |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
| CPI |
64,3% |
64,8% |
43,0% |
25,0% |
18,5% |
16,0% |
15,0% |
15,0% |
| GDP Growth |
5,5% |
4,5% |
3,5% |
3,5% |
3,8% |
3,5% |
3,5% |
3,5% |
| GDP (bnTL) |
15.012 |
26.276 |
42.579 |
57.444 |
72.241 |
87.538 |
104.678 |
124.666 |
| GDP (bn$) |
906 |
1.119 |
1.267 |
1.359 |
1.453 |
1.537 |
1.609 |
1.677 |
| GDP Deflator |
96,0% |
67,5% |
56,6% |
30,4% |
21,2% |
17,1% |
15,5% |
15,0% |
| Per Capita Income ($) |
10.659 |
12.945 |
14.492 |
15.382 |
16.261 |
17.017 |
17.618 |
18.164 |
| 2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) |
10,0% |
39,7% |
36,5% |
26,1% |
23,1% |
19,7% |
19,2% |
19,0% |
| 2-year Benchmark Real Rate (Ex-Ante, eop) |
-33,3% |
-2,3% |
9,2% |
6,4% |
6,0% |
4,1% |
3,6% |
3,4% |
| CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) |
9,0% |
42,5% |
45,0% |
30,0% |
22,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| CBRT Funding Rate (average) |
12,7% |
20,5% |
48,7% |
37,4% |
25,2% |
19,7% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| USDTRY (eop) |
18,70 |
29,44 |
38,00 |
45,50 |
53,00 |
60,00 |
69,00 |
78,67 |
| USDTRY (average) |
16,56 |
23,74 |
33,44 |
42,06 |
49,56 |
56,79 |
64,88 |
74,13 |
| EUROTRY (eop) |
19,93 |
32,57 |
41,35 |
52,00 |
62,72 |
72,03 |
82,83 |
94,44 |
| EUROTRY (average) |
17,38 |
25,68 |
36,07 |
47,10 |
57,90 |
67,97 |
77,88 |
88,99 |
| Currency Basket (eop) |
19,32 |
31,01 |
39,67 |
48,75 |
57,86 |
66,01 |
75,92 |
86,56 |
| Currency Basket (average) |
16,97 |
24,71 |
34,75 |
44,58 |
53,73 |
62,38 |
71,38 |
81,56 |
| Parity (eop) |
1,07 |
1,11 |
1,09 |
1,14 |
1,18 |
1,20 |
1,20 |
1,20 |
| Current Account Balance (bn$) |
-45,8 |
-45,0 |
-20,0 |
-22,7 |
-26,9 |
-30,3 |
-35,8 |
-37,9 |
| Current Account Balance (as of GDP) |
-5,1% |
-4,0% |
-1,6% |
-1,7% |
-1,8% |
-2,0% |
-2,2% |
-2,3% |
| Exports (fob, bn$) |
254,2 |
255,5 |
269,9 |
291,5 |
315,8 |
335,8 |
354,4 |
375,5 |
| Imports (cif, bn$) |
363,7 |
361,8 |
359,4 |
390,2 |
423,8 |
451,9 |
480,0 |
507,0 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) |
-109,5 |
-106,3 |
-89,5 |
-98,7 |
-108,0 |
-116,1 |
-125,6 |
-131,5 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) |
-12,1% |
-9,5% |
-7,1% |
-7,3% |
-7,4% |
-7,6% |
-7,8% |
-7,8% |
| EU Defined Public Debt / GDP |
32,6% |
29,5% |
32,2% |
33,0% |
35,5% |
35,4% |
35,5% |
35,2% |
| Unemployment Rate |
10,5% |
9,4% |
9,3% |
10,5% |
10,8% |
11,0% |
11,0% |
11,0% |
| CG Primary Balance / GDP |
1,1% |
-2,7% |
-1,5% |
0,6% |
1,0% |
1,0% |
1,1% |
1,2% |
| CG Budget Balance / GDP |
-0,9% |
-5,2% |
-5,0% |
-3,3% |
-3,0% |
-2,9% |
-2,8% |
-2,8% |
| CG Budget Balance (bn TL) |
-139 |
-1375 |
-2136 |
-1919 |
-2155 |
-2546 |
-2964 |
-3434 |