| Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts |
| |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
| CPI |
64,3% |
64,8% |
44,4% |
31,0% |
21,0% |
18,0% |
16,0% |
15,0% |
15,0% |
| GDP Growth |
5,5% |
5,1% |
3,2% |
3,5% |
4,0% |
4,2% |
4,2% |
4,0% |
4,0% |
| GDP (bnTL) |
15.012 |
26.546 |
43.411 |
60.904 |
79.020 |
97.704 |
118.732 |
142.379 |
170.353 |
| GDP (bn$) |
906 |
1.130 |
1.322 |
1.515 |
1.615 |
1.730 |
1.804 |
1.872 |
1.942 |
| GDP Deflator |
96,0% |
68,2% |
58,5% |
35,5% |
24,7% |
18,7% |
16,7% |
15,4% |
15,0% |
| Per Capita Income ($) |
10.659 |
13.243 |
15.450 |
17.610 |
18.686 |
19.923 |
20.672 |
21.357 |
22.066 |
| 2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) |
10,0% |
39,7% |
40,6% |
32,0% |
25,4% |
22,0% |
20,4% |
19,6% |
19,5% |
| 2-year Benchmark Real Rate (Ex-Ante, eop) |
-33,3% |
-3,3% |
7,3% |
9,1% |
6,3% |
5,1% |
3,8% |
4,0% |
3,9% |
| CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) |
9,0% |
42,5% |
47,5% |
36,5% |
25,0% |
20,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| CBRT Funding Rate (average) |
12,7% |
20,5% |
49,6% |
42,1% |
29,0% |
22,0% |
18,9% |
18,0% |
18,0% |
| USDTRY (eop) |
18,7 |
29,4 |
35,3 |
45,0 |
52,0 |
60,0 |
70,5 |
80,5 |
93,5 |
| USDTRY (average) |
16,6 |
23,7 |
32,8 |
40,1 |
48,8 |
56,3 |
65,7 |
75,9 |
87,5 |
| EUROTRY (eop) |
19,9 |
32,6 |
36,7 |
48,9 |
59,3 |
70,5 |
83,2 |
95,0 |
110,4 |
| EUROTRY (average) |
17,4 |
25,7 |
35,5 |
43,0 |
54,4 |
65,3 |
77,5 |
89,6 |
103,4 |
| Currency Basket (eop) |
19,3 |
31,0 |
36,0 |
46,9 |
55,6 |
65,3 |
76,9 |
87,8 |
101,9 |
| Currency Basket (average) |
17,0 |
24,7 |
34,1 |
41,5 |
51,6 |
60,8 |
71,6 |
82,8 |
95,4 |
| Parity (eop) |
1,07 |
1,11 |
1,04 |
1,09 |
1,14 |
1,18 |
1,18 |
1,18 |
1,18 |
| Current Account Balance (bn$) |
-46,6 |
-40,5 |
-10,0 |
-22,5 |
-33,9 |
-42,5 |
-41,8 |
-43,6 |
-45,0 |
| Current Account Balance (as of GDP) |
-5,1% |
-3,6% |
-0,8% |
-1,5% |
-2,1% |
-2,5% |
-2,3% |
-2,3% |
-2,3% |
| Exports (fob, bn$) |
254 |
256 |
262 |
262 |
285 |
311 |
328 |
343 |
360 |
| Imports (cif, bn$) |
364 |
362 |
344 |
367 |
407 |
447 |
467 |
489 |
510 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) |
-110 |
-106 |
-82 |
-105 |
-122 |
-137 |
-140 |
-145 |
-151 |
| Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) |
-12,1% |
-9,4% |
-6,2% |
-6,9% |
-7,5% |
-7,9% |
-7,8% |
-7,8% |
-7,8% |
| EU Defined Public Debt / GDP |
32,6% |
29,3% |
25,8% |
25,4% |
30,5% |
31,8% |
33,6% |
34,3% |
0,0% |
| Unemployment Rate |
10,5% |
9,4% |
8,8% |
9,3% |
10,0% |
10,3% |
10,5% |
10,5% |
10,5% |
| CG Primary Balance / GDP |
1,1% |
-2,6% |
-1,9% |
-0,4% |
-0,2% |
-0,1% |
0,1% |
0,2% |
0,3% |
| CG Budget Balance / GDP |
-0,9% |
-5,2% |
-4,9% |
-3,5% |
-3,3% |
-3,2% |
-3,0% |
-2,9% |
-2,8% |
| CG Budget Balance (bn TL) |
-139 |
-1.375 |
-2.106 |
-2.158 |
-2.644 |
-3.109 |
-3.581 |
-4.143 |
-4.764 |