Macroeconomic Forecasts

    January 2026 Baseline Scenario
    Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts
  2024 2025 2026
CPI 44,4% 30,9% 25,0%
GDP Growth 3,3% 3,7% 4,0%
GDP (bnTL) 44.587 61.900 81.758
GDP (bn$) 1.358 1.562 1.707
GDP Deflator 59,3% 33,9% 26,9%
Per Capita Income ($) 15.325 17.566 19.058
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) 40,6% 36,8% 31,7%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 47,5% 38,0% 32,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 49,6% 43,6% 34,0%
USDTRY (eop) 35,3 42,8 52,0
USDTRY (average) 32,8 39,5 47,7
EUROTRY (eop) 36,7 50,3 62,3
EUROTRY (average) 35,5 44,7 56,4
Currency Basket (eop) 36,0 46,3 57,1
Currency Basket (average) 34,1 42,1 52,1
Parity (eop) 1,04 1,17 1,20
Current Account Balance (bn$) -10,0 -23,3 -25,2
Current Account Balance (as of GDP) -0,7% -1,5% -1,5%
Exports (fob, bn$) 262 273 287
Imports (cif, bn$) 344 366 396
Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) -82 -92 -109
Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) -6,1% -5,9% -6,4%
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP 25,8% 22,4% 24,5%
Unemployment Rate 8,7% 8,4% 9,2%
CG Primary Balance / GDP -1,9% -0,3% -0,2%
CG Budget Balance / GDP -4,7% -3,6% -3,7%