Macroeconomic Forecasts

        November 2025 Baseline Scenario
        Garanti BBVA Macro Forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
CPI 64,3% 64,8% 44,4% 32,0% 25,0%
GDP Growth 5,4% 5,0% 3,3% 3,7% 4,0%
GDP (bnTL) 15.326 27.091 44.587 62.037 82.640
GDP (bn$) 925 1.153 1.358 1.564 1.720
GDP Deflator 95,5% 68,3% 59,3% 34,1% 28,1%
Per Capita Income ($) 10.882 13.008 15.325 17.582 19.196
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop) 10,0% 39,7% 40,6% 38,9% 31,7%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 9,0% 42,5% 47,5% 38,5% 32,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 12,7% 20,5% 49,6% 43,6% 34,5%
USDTRY (eop) 18,7 29,4 35,3 43,0 52,0
USDTRY (average) 16,6 23,7 32,8 39,5 47,9
EUROTRY (eop) 19,9 32,6 36,7 50,0 62,3
EUROTRY (average) 17,4 25,7 35,5 44,7 56,7
Currency Basket (eop) 19,3 31,0 36,0 46,5 57,1
Currency Basket (average) 17,0 24,7 34,1 42,1 52,3
Parity (eop) 1,07 1,11 1,04 1,16 1,20
Current Account Balance (bn$) -46,6 -40,5 -10,0 -20,2 -25,2
Current Account Balance (as of GDP) -5,0% -3,5% -0,7% -1,3% -1,5%
Exports (fob, bn$) 254 256 262 269 287
Imports (cif, bn$) 364 362 344 362 396
Foreign Trade Balance (bn$) -110 -106 -82 -93 -109
Foreign Trade Balance (as of GDP) -11,8% -9,2% -6,1% -5,9% -6,3%
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP 32,6% 29,3% 25,8% 22,4% 24,5%
Unemployment Rate 10,5% 9,4% 8,7% 8,4% 9,2%
CG Primary Balance / GDP 1,1% -2,6% -1,9% -0,3% -0,2%
CG Budget Balance / GDP -0,9% -5,1% -4,7% -3,6% -3,7%